How Much Can I Win on an NBA Bet? A Guide to Calculating Your Payouts

So, you're thinking about placing a bet on an NBA game. Maybe it's the Lakers versus the Celtics, or you've got a feeling about an underdog like the Orlando Magic pulling off an upset. The excitement is real, but then the practical question hits: "How much can I actually win on this?" It's a fantastic question, and answering it is a bit less mysterious than you might think, though it requires understanding the language of sportsbooks. Let me walk you through it, drawing from my own years of following the odds, both for fun and, admittedly, with a few dollars on the line. The core idea is simple: your payout isn't just about who wins; it's about the risk the bookmaker sees in that outcome, expressed through numbers like +150 or -200.

First, let's talk about the two main types of odds you'll see: American odds, which are dominant in the U.S., and decimal odds, more common in Europe. We'll stick with American for this NBA guide. They come with either a plus (+) or a minus (-) sign. The minus sign is attached to the favorite—the team expected to win. That number tells you how much you need to bet to win $100. For example, if the Denver Nuggets are listed at -250 against the Phoenix Suns, that means you'd need to wager $250 to profit $100. Your total return if you win would be $350 ($250 stake back + $100 profit). On the flip side, the plus sign is for the underdog. It tells you how much you'd profit on a $100 bet. If those Suns are at +210, a $100 bet would net you a $210 profit, for a total return of $310. Now, you don't have to bet in $100 increments! That's just the standard scale. A $50 bet on that +210 line would yield a profit of $105 ($50 * 2.1). The math is straightforward: for plus odds, your profit equals (Bet Amount * Odds) / 100. For minus odds, your profit equals (Bet Amount / Odds) * 100, where you use the absolute value of the number.

This is where it gets interesting, and where I want to bring in that bit from the knowledge base about an unfinished story. You remember that feeling when a great TV series or video game just... stops? No proper finale, loose ends everywhere? Placing a bet without understanding your potential payout is a bit like that. You're invested in the narrative—your team's comeback, that star player's hot streak—but if you haven't calculated the payout, the "credits roll" on your bet slip can feel surprisingly and deeply unrewarding, regardless of whether you win or lose. I once put $75 on a team at -180 because I was so sure of them. They won! But when my account was credited, I only saw a profit of about $41.67. For a moment, I felt that abrupt cutoff. The objective—making a great return—felt two-thirds finished. The victory was there, but the financial reward felt muted because I hadn't fully internalized what that -180 really meant for my wallet. It was a decent story (my team won!), but the payout chapter was underwhelming.

Let's make it more concrete with a current-season scenario. Imagine the Golden State Warriors, with their explosive offense, are hosting the young Houston Rockets. The sportsbook lists the Warriors at -400. That's a heavy favorite. To win $100, you're risking $400. The implied probability here is high, roughly 80%. A $20 bet would only profit you $5. Is that worth it? For many, it's not. The Rockets, meanwhile, might be at +320. A $20 bet on them would bring a profit of $64 if they pull off the stunner. That's a much juicier return, reflecting the higher risk. This is the essence of value hunting. It's not just about picking winners; it's about finding odds that pay more than the actual risk you believe exists. Maybe you think the Rockets have a 35% chance to win, but the +320 line implies only about a 24% chance. That discrepancy is where potential value lies.

But here's a crucial personal opinion: don't just chase the big plus-money payouts. I've fallen into that trap. The allure of turning $10 into $50 is strong, but underdogs are underdogs for a reason. Over a long season, consistently betting on heavy underdogs is a quick way to see your bankroll disappear. Balance is key. Sometimes, the smarter play is a "boring" bet on a favorite at -150, where you're essentially paying a smaller premium for a higher likelihood of a steady return. Think of it as the difference between a blockbuster movie with a rushed, terrible ending and a well-crafted, satisfying indie film. One promises huge spectacle but may disappoint; the other delivers a consistent, rewarding experience. Your betting portfolio should have elements of both, depending on your confidence and risk tolerance.

Finally, always, always calculate your potential payout before you click "confirm." Most sportsbooks will do this for you in the bet slip, showing your "To Win" amount clearly. Use it. Let's say you're considering a same-game parlay—a single bet combining several outcomes from one game, like "Stephen Curry over 29.5 points AND the Warriors to win AND total points over 225." The odds might be something like +600. A $25 bet could win you $150 in profit. That's exciting! But the reason the payout is so high is because the probability of hitting all those legs is low. It's the betting equivalent of a story with three epic climaxes; nailing the ending is incredibly satisfying, but most of the time, the hunt for the remaining plot points falls short. Understanding the "how much" completely changes your relationship with the bet. It transforms it from a hopeful guess into a calculated decision. So next time you look at an NBA line, don't just ask who will win. Ask yourself, "For the risk I'm taking, is the potential reward worth it?" The answer will make you a much more thoughtful, and hopefully more successful, bettor.